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Description  |
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This invention relates to computerized artificial intelligence system and
more particularly to a computing apparatus for an improved information
system that manages.
BACKGROUND OF THE INVENTION
In the past, management as a discipline has been considered a social
science rather than a universal science. As a social science three
problems of management exist. First, there is a lack of acceptable
definitions of terms. Secondly, there is an ignorance of the breadth of
the history of management. Thirdly, there exists unworkable management
theory. As management developed as a social science, these problems
falsely confirmed the belief that successful management is subject to
human uniqueness. While in fact, management based on anthropocentrism
added problems because, for example, (1) many managers lacked
understanding of the management processes, (2) vested interests pervade
the decision process, as a result of the prepotent need for self and group
protection when the measures of efficiency and effectiveness are
concerned, and (3) the imposition of group norms to control production are
not subject to positive control.
Recognition that management, as a discipline, has not in theory or in
practice sought to connect its principles to those of other sciences has
led to the clashing of the social sciences and particularly the life
sciences on the neutral ground of human behavior. The field of contention
is over the relationship of nature and nurture or, in traditional terms,
heredity and culture.
The seeds for a scientific method in management were planted in the
ninteenth century, they blossomed into literature during the emergent
period 1900-1925 with Frederick W. Taylor's 1903 publication entitled
"Shop Management". The convergent period 1925-1950 concentrated initially
upon the use of the scientific method to study groups of people in the
work place. The focus for this period was the private sector, but the
locus of the researchers was academe. The use of the academic laboratory
in addition to the work place as a clinical practice area for the human
biologic sciences resulted in the eventual establishment of the case
method at the Harvard Business School in contrast to the more traditional
social, historical approach of economics.
World War II changed the focus of the application of science to management.
Military organizations are historically and paradigmatically the first
large-scale instance of management. This war created organizations, with
their commensurate problems of world-wide proportions. The electronic data
processing computer, with its future management potential, came out of the
war effort.
The proliferent period 1950-1975 found vigorous competition among
corporations to fill or enlarge their niches resulting in a positive
approach in computer development. The computer could give a clerical
informational advantage to organizations dealing with either world-wide or
local problems.
The first electronic digital computer was designed and fabricated by
Atanasoff and Berry at Iowa State College in 1937-1938. In 1946, Mauchly
and Eckert completed the first large-scale computer, called the Electronic
Numerical Integrator and Computer (ENIAC). All such devices lacked the
unique capability of the stored program concept--the ability to
internalize its own administration. This is the real dividing point
between the mechanical/electrical devices and the electronic computer.
John Von Neumann's 1945 discovery is the fall line between the automatic
data processor (ADP) and the electronic data processor (EDP). Now a
machine could be programmed to administer its own operations.
Computer programs are divided into two classes. The general problem-solving
type is called a systems program while the specific problem-solving
collection of instructions is classified as an application program. The
most fundamental systems program, which serves as an interface between
machine and user, is called a language. Its prepotency can be related to
the hardware evolution.
______________________________________
LANGUAGES HARDWARE
______________________________________
Machine Vacuum tube
Assembler/ Transistor
Compiler
Interpreter Integrated circuit (IC)
User-friendly Very large scale IC
(VSLI)
______________________________________
As computer systems evolved, so did their management involvement. The
electronic data processing computer with its future management potential
came out of the World War II; efforts to handle on a large scale people,
materials, and data necessitated attempts to codify the functions of
management. These attempts were not altogether successful, but functions
common to these attempts were planning, organizing, and controlling.
These efforts produced three effects on the computer of broad management
significance. The first involved control and emphasized systems. In the
1950's, DuPont developed the Critical Path Method (CPM), and the Navy came
up with Program Evaluation Review Technique (PERT). Both use network
analyses. CPM identified the longest (time) series of work elements which
could then receive management attention; PERT statistically set time goals
and tracked their accomplishment. By the 1960's these types of control
systems were widely used as computerized systems to evaluate time and
sometimes money.
The second effect involved Operations Research (OR). Obviously, the
computer was an ideal tool for dealing with OR Problems. It could handle
the quantities of data and equations required by many large-scale efforts.
As a result, OR ceased to utilize an interdisciplinary team approach and,
instead, used a cookbook approach of applied computer programs.
The third effect precipitated the beginning of artificial intelligence.
This field of computer science was pioneered in part by a behavioral
management theorist, Herbert Simon. The goal, a general problems solver
(GPS), was at that time far from completion. It did set the stage for the
present interest in expert systems and other forthcoming computer advances
having management significance.
The problem with these management systems as indicated above is that the
systems were not general management problem solvers. A computerized
general management problem solver must have a generic basis.
If one accepts the proposition that management as theory has already been
repeatedly tested by nature, the science of management is an actuality.
Not only is management a science--but science is management. Thus, going
beyond the life sciences, the theory of evolution provides a management
theory as follows:
The two principles of evolution are constancy and change. The proton of the
atom can function alone as an emergent in a nucleus of hydrogen, whereas
the single-strand ribonucleic acid (RNA) of the cell functions only as a
coemergent. Nevertheless, they are concerned initially with the same
operational principle-constancy. They both share change through gradual
and eventually drastic mutation. Thus, if constancy and change are the
principles of an operational universe, then emergence, convergence,
proliference, and divergence are their characteristic actions or
functions. Emergence and convergence are the functions of constancy, and
proliference and divergence are the functions of change.
The general systems or parallel units of these functional relationships are
alike in that one word, attraction, describes the overall process of each;
but they are different as to the outcomes. The operation general systems
are: attraction (emergence), combination (convergence), recombination
(proliference), and concentration (divergence).
The first observation of attraction should be the origin of management.
Recently, such primordial attraction has been shown to take place at the
subelementary particle level. This attraction capability of subelementary
entities is the point at which certain "determination of the course of
action" of matter occurred. A concentration of such quarks is associated
with dissipative energy very soon after the Big Bang and resulted in
particles as new states of matter. This determined course of action (along
with the necessary energy to accomplish it) was informed in these new
emergent particles. The particle, therefore, was self-informed as to its
course of action concerning operational/support functions. Such a course
of action or "scheme of doing" was common to all particles at birth; and
at the instances of their emergence, attraction was initialed and in
proper systematic order the combinations of convergence took place. In
other words, the course of action was accomplished.
The predetermined course of action as accomplished consisted of the
subfunctions of tasks of the work elements of convergence,
plication/replication and combination (nucleosynthesis). The goal of the
course of action is the product, in this case the configured means of
constancy and change.
The tasks of convergence were accomplished as timely conditions dictated.
The condition of the regular cooling from the temperature of the Big Bang
to the present constitutes a universal clock. By using such cooling as the
measure of time, the tasks of convergence can be ascertained as to
initiation and cost in time. Further, the energy that is internal at the
time of emergence can be measured as a participative cost during the tasks
of convergence. Finally, the product of accomplishment can be measured as
to quantity consisting of a given number of pairs of different entities in
a one-to-one ratio. The quality of this product is definable as a given
nucleus. From determination of the course action to the goal of a
converged product, the pairings, or grouping occurred with certainty.
This certainty is weakened as the function of proliference puts the binary
products or group forms at risk during recombination. Such invention
includes not only reconfiguration of the binary product or group but also
additional energization of a newly organized whole. Such energy is not the
nucleus but rather external thereto. The resulting new organizations are
tested until the fitter fills its niche and risk resolves back to
certainty. Thus, invention and testing take place as the proliferent
subfunctions or tasks consisting of renucleosynthesis/renurturation,
energization, and eventual maturation of the fitter.
The timely initiation of these tasks is related to the overall universal
cooling. The cost of time for the occurrence and recurrence of these tasks
can also be calculated. Both the participative energy of the recombinant
nucleus or recombinant group and the external energy can be calculated
based on the kind and amount of force involved. In the case of the atom,
the quantity and quality of the organized product are related. For
example, as the number of nucleons increases, the kinds of elements, or
quality, also change. The periodic table demonstrates this relationship of
quantity and quality in a series of performed products. Thus, the
performance factor may be described in this way: Quantity becomes quality
in the atomic world; one electron more may lead to a complete change of
properties. Therefore, the timely initiation of each task, the task cost
in time, the participative energy cost per task, and the performance
properties can be calculated in proliference (as in convergence) for the
atom. The constant direction of time allows all the other proliference
stages to complete the same risky tasks of reconfiguration and
energization to certain maturity for those organizations that become
fitter. Given, the same time (temperature) and the same energy
involvement, both molecules and compounds composed of the same amount of
the same elements will result in the same quantity and quality of product.
Otherwise, chemistry would not be a science.
Risky invention resolves to certainty as testing results in the maturity of
selected organizations. Further selection of the fittest of these
organizations causes divergence resulting in tasks of decoupling,
increased motility, and symbiosis to occur with certainty. The dissipative
structure thesis accounts for all such concentrations which take place far
from the equilibria of both convergence and proliference.
These concentrations in a localized area cause a redetermination of a
course of action in a new layer and state of matter. Thus, the functional
cycle of emergence, convergence, proliference, and divergence has resulted
in the ever changing topology of mass.
From the above, the evolution of management through the first macro
paradigm can be detailed as follows:
1. Beginning with the origin of management at the subelementary particle
level, certain determination of a course of action takes place.
2. This course of action is accomplished and assured with certainty in part
and, in whole, as to time, energy, and performance.
3. Inventions at risk are resolved to mature certainty by testing; the
fitter are selected based on time, energy, and performance.
4. Certain coming together of the selected fittest results in a
redetermination of a course of action for the next layer of management.
A cycle of course of action determination, accomplishment and assurance of
accomplishment, invention and testing, maturation, and redetermination of
a course of action is the pattern of management evolution for the primary
universal paradigm (physics and physical chemistry).
The secondary universal paradigm (organic, chemistry, biology, and social
sciences) in its microparadigms follows mostly the same cycle as the
first, the exceptions involve:
1. The introduction of new information resulting in proliferent
"uncertainty" as an antecedent to the risk of invention; and
2. The advent of specific organismic management beginning with group
leadership and continuing through parental governance to the eventual
appearance of human organizational management.
From the above it is apparent that management handles the initial and
proper, subsequent relative order of the operational/support functions of
the universe involving two principles. The first principle concerns the
handling of constancy and is labeled administration, a word that usually
means ministration to or stewardship. Its meaning, in conjunction with
management, also denotes coordination.
The second principle that handles change is anticipation, which means the
taking up of something before hand. While administration involves doing,
anticipation involves what is to be done.
Based on these principles, the functions of administration involve the
accomplishment of a previously determined course of action
(implementation) and its assurance of accomplishment in whole or in part
measured in time, energy, and performance (evaluation). The functions of
anticipation involve the eventual certain determination of a course of
action through the resolution of risk and uncertainty (basic, applied,
development research and planning). It is the plan that is the contact
point between administration and anticipational in today human
organizations.
Plans are characterized by time and amount of detail. Short-term plans are
called tactical; long-range, general plans are called strategic. The
elements of a plan are: scope, work elements, time frame, resource
allocation, summary (may be presented first), appendix, bibliography, and
glossary.
The scope of the plan is a general statement about the state of the art,
the nature of the problem (task), and the proposed solution expressed in
goals and their surrogates. The word surrogate refers to the numbers that
are required to identify the desired output in part and in whole. These
are, of course, time, energy, and performance (quality specifications and
quantity of outputs to be produced). Scope refers to the range of such
goals or objectives.
The work elements is the initial deduction (output to input) of the manager
presented inductively (input to output). These work elements are broken
down into sequential stages and tasks. Such a series was typical of the
industrial fabrication of physical products. A stage is a series of tasks
performed one after another without a break in time. A task is a defined
job that is performed by one or more human beings and/or machines without
a break in time.
Time frame if the time for a task is not precisely known, then an estimate
must be made. The activity time formulation is one approach that came out
of PERT, i.e., AT =(a+4b+c)/6, which estimates activity time by adding the
most optimistic time (a) to four times the most likely time (b) to the
most pessimestic time (c) and dividing the summation by 6.
Resource Allocation is a matrix showing the cost measured in money for
mass/energy (human and material resources) by both stages and tasks and is
called a performance budget. The total cost for all types of resources
over the time of the plan is termed a line item budget. The word,
overhead, refers to those overall costs of the organization that all work
elements must share (taxes, general/administrative, profit or contingency
expressed as percentages of time and materials).
The summary is a general statement of how the plan will succeed. Such a
summary usually has public relations value as well.
The appendix includes the resumes of the persons involved and
specifications of materials. The bibliography is the identification of the
source of literary, field, and experimental data. And the glossary
contains an inventory and definition of special terms.
As previously stated, administration is based on control. All the
information necessary to develop such a system is found in the format of
the plan. Like its universal predecessor, a control system must be
cybernetic, heuristic, and assured. The control of a single leader is
based on authority and is subject to the errors of such a person.
Similarly, most industrial control systems depend on people and are
equally limited. As human beings thwart positive control by inaccurately
inputting the system or to other overt actions, the closed-loop aspect of
control must be absolute if positive results are to be achieved.
Prior attempts to provide good cybernetic systems in project management met
with varying degrees of success. One-time-only work elements were
controlled more easily because group norms did not have time to be
established. Other attempts were made to computerize management, one such
attempt was performance budgeting established by Government Executive
Order and known as the Planning, Programming Budgeting System. This effort
sought to bring the system analysis process to strategic planning;
however, the higher level control systems were rarely connected with the
lower-level systems; the result was a failure owing to lack of
cybernetics. In addition to control failure, because the higher-level
systems were rarely connected to the lower-level systems, there was no
positive feedback for problem solving. Without, feedback for problem
solving there can be no heuristics and no possible evolution of the plan.
Those persons skilled in the art desiring more information concerning the
background of this invention are referred to B. G. Schumacher, "On The
Oriqin And Nature Of Management", Eugnosis Press (1984, 1986).
SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
Accordingly, it is an object of this invention to provide a computerized
management apparatus having a socio-intelligence that is applicable to all
organizations of humans and other machines including its own evolution.
Another object of the invention is to provide a computerized management
system following the pattern favored by all assemblages or aggregations of
evolutionary matter including atoms and their organic constructs of cells
including the paradigm emergence of administration, convergence of
administration and anticipation, proliference of administration and
anticipation throughout the organization, and divergence into new states
of matter or organization.
Still another object of the invention is to provide a computerized
management system having built in communication and control capability for
management purposes.
Yet another object of the invention is to provide a computerized management
apparatus having built-in positive feedback for self-educating capability.
Still yet another object of the invention is to provide a computerized
management apparatus having an assured management system.
A further object of the invention is to provide a computer aided general
problem solver for managing any human or machine organization.
Briefly stated the invention includes a computer aided dual system general
problem solver for managing any human or machine organization. An
instruction means connected to the computing means provides a first system
of the dual system for implementing the principle of administration and is
hereinafter referred to as the Alphus system. A second instruction means
provides a second system of the dual system for implementing the principle
of anticipation and is hereinafter referred to as the Beta system.
The functions of administration included in Alphus are implementation (I)
and evaluation (E). The general system of administration is control.
The functions of anticipation included in Beta are basic research (B),
applied research (A), development (D), and planning (P).
Thus, an automated, closed loop management apparatus assures the right
action takes place at the right time and at the right cost in time and
money (energy) to achieve the right quantity and quality of the right
output (goods and/or services), with a feedback subjecting the efficiency
and effectiveness of the output to change or redetermination by a process
of discovery, invention, testing, and optimal selection for perfection.
The change may be gradual or evolutionary as well as drastic or
revolutionary to meet the demands of management.
BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DRAWINGS
Other objects and features of the invention will become more readily
apparent form the following detailed description when read in conjunction
with the accompanying drawings, in which like reference numerals designate
like parts throughout the figures thereof, and in which:
FIG. 1 is a view of the computerized management system constituting the
subject matter of the invention;
FIG. 2 is a plan view showing the back side of the multiple operating
computer housing for the invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram shown in block form of a microprocessor
suitable for the invention; and
FIGS. 4a, 4b, 4c are flowcharts showing the operation of the Alphus and
Beta systems of the invention.
DESCRIPTION OF THE PREFERRED EMBODIMENT OF THE INVENTION
The computerized management system with simultaneous user capability 10
(FIG. 1) of the present invention includes a plurality of work stations
12, and a cabinet 14 for housing an expander 16 and one or more
microprocessors 18. Each work station includes a monitor 20 and a keyboard
22. A plurality of printers 24 are provided for the work stations. The
printers may or may not be located at each work station. The monitors and
keyboards are typical color monitors and keyboards such as, for example
those sold by the International Business Machine Corporation. The
expansion unit 16, is, for example, an MPC-8 Expansion Unit sold by Anex
Technologies.
The microprocessor 18 is, for example, a multiple instruction, multiple
data stream (MIMD) parallel processor. Such as the FLEX/32 which uses at
least two CPUs that either work independently or concurrently, processing
data simultaneously. The Flex/32 basic system consists of two 32-bit
superminicomputers based on National Semiconductor Corp.'s 32032
microprocessor having 2 megabytes of local memory, 128 kilobytes of common
memory, and two VME bus interfaces mounted in cabinet 14. The system can
grow from one computer which is a 32-bit supermini, to 20,480 of those
computers all running as a "symphony Orchestra".
The work stations 12 are connected by leads 28 to eight input/output ports
30 provided on the backside of the expansion unit 16 mounted in cabinet 14
(FIG. 2). The expansion unit 16 input/output ports include video ports for
video cards and parallel printer ports connected by bus 32 to an
input/output port of eight input/output ports 34 of the microprocessor 18.
Referring now to FIG. 3, the microprocessor 18 includes a bus interface
control 36 connected to an 8-byte queue 38 containing instructions, and in
two-way connection to a 32-bit internal bus 40. The 8-byte queue 38 is
connected to the junction of an instruction decoder 42 and a displacement
and immediate extractor 44. The instruction decoder 42 is connected to a
microcode ROM and control logic 46 and the displacement and immediate
extractor 44 is connected to the 32-bit internal bus 40. A register set 48
and working registers 50 are connected for two way communication with the
32-bit internal bus. A 32-bit arithmetic logic unit (ALU) 52 is connected
to the working registers for processing information pursuant to
instructions received and outputting the processed information to the
32-bit internal bus 40 for storage or output to the work stations or both
as appropriate.
While FIGS. 1, 2, and 3 demonstrate one hardware configuration, it should
be made clear that the nucleon system is machine independent, that is, it
is operational in the full spectrum from a single or parallel micro to the
largest scale hardware configurations.
Referring now to FIGS. 4a-4c for a description of the emergence stage
(steps 60-96), convergence stage (steps 100-152), proliference stage
(steps 154-168), and divergence stage (steps 170 and 172). the instruction
means, includes the Alphus (administrative part of the Nucleon system)
system (the emergence and convergence stages) and the Beta system (the
proliference and divergence stages). The mode of operation of Alphus is
shown in detail beginning with FIG. 4a. At start 60 information is input
into the system as follows: an instruction 62 is issued to display a
friendly message introducing the system to the user. A suitable message
is, for example, as follows:
"Hello, I am Al--The experimental Administrator-will ask you a series of
questions about adding a task to system or about the work you completed
today. All you have to do is respond to each question. If you are ready to
continue, strike any key." In response to striking any key 64, an
instruction 66 is issued to display a message substantially as follows:
"What would you like to do?
1. Add new task.
2. Input today's work.
3. End Al.
"Please type the number of your choice and hit return."
In response 68, the operator then selects and enters the selected option.
Then a decision 70 is made as to which option is made. If option 3 is
selected, exit is made; however, if option 1 or 2 is selected, subroutines
72 and 74 are selectively entered for options 1 and 2.
For option 1, an instruction 76 (FIG. 4a) is issued to display a message
substantially as follows:
"Please type in the answers to the following questions:
1. What is the name of the task to be added?
2. What is the name of one person who does this task alone or in part as a
member of a group?
3. What is the employee number of this person?
4. Optimistically, how many minutes does this task take to perform?
5. Pessimistically, how many minutes does this task take to perform?
6. Most likely, how may minutes does this task take to perform?
7. What are the quality and quantity surrogates?
8. What is the budget?"
In response 78, the operator enters the answer to each question.
Next, an instruction 80 is issued to display a message substantially as
follows:
"Does this task require completion on a specific date? If yes, enter Y;
otherwise enter N."
In response 82, the operator enters either a "Y" or an "N", and a decision
84 (FIG. 4b) is made whether a "Y" or an "N" was entered. If yes, an
instruction 86 is issued to display a message substantially as follows:
"What is the Julian date?"
In response 88, the Julian date is entered.
Then, an instruction 90 is issued or if the decision 84 is No the
instruction 90 is issued to display a message substantially as follows:
"Is there another employee who will accomplish this task in whole or in
part sometime in the future? If yes, strike "Y"; if no, strike "NO"."
In response 92, the "Y" or "N" key is pressed, and a decision 94 is made
whether yes or no was selected. If yes, and instruction 96 is issued to
return to instruction 76; otherwise, if no, an instruction is issued to
return to instruction 66 and repeat the loop until exit is made (FIG. 4a).
Option 2 begins with an instruction 100 (FIG. 4a) being issued to display a
message substantially as follows:
"Please type your name."
In response 102, the user enters his name.
Next, an instruction 104 is issued to display a message substantially as
follows:
"What is your employee number?"
In response 106, the employee enters his/her employee number, and a
decision 108 is made whether the employee number is correct or incorrect
for the name entered. If incorrect, an instruction 110 is issued to return
to instruction 66, otherwise, if correct, an instruction 112 is issued to
display a message substantially as follows:
"What is the Julian date?"
In response 114 (FIG. 4b), the Julian date is input.
Then, an instruction 116 is issued to read a record; this is the beginning
update at the beginning of the file. Next, a decision 118 is made whether
the record to be read is for the employee. If not, a decision 120 is made
whether the "end of file?" has been reached. The "end of file" refers to
the subroutine that terminates the sorting of the master file for the task
records that make up the job description of one individual. Such a sort is
done on any given day to determine work completed. If yes, an instruction
122 is issued to return to instruction 66 (FIG. 4a); otherwise an
instruction 124 is issued to return to instruction 116 and repeat until
the employee's file has been found and the answer is yes.
Then, an instruction 126 is issued to display a message as follows:
"How many task.sub.-- did you do?"
In response 128, the number of tasks completed is entered. Next, a decision
130 is made whether the end of file has been determined. The end of file
decision 130 refers to the subroutine that terminates the sorting of the
master file for the task records that make up the job description of one
individual. Such a sort is done on any given day to determine work
completed. If decision 130 is no, an instruction 132 is issued to return
to instruction 116 (FIG. 4c); if yes, a plurality of instructions 134,
136, 138, 140, 142 or FIG. 4b, and instructions 144, and 146 (FIG. 4c) are
issued sequentially as follows.
Instruction 134 is issued to enter a subroutine for calculating and storing
the cost in time of each kind of task completed on any given day in
relation to other completed tasks.
Instruction 136 is issued to enter the activity money cost calculation
subroutine to calculate the activity money cost. This is the daily
activity time cost per task times the equivalent rate of pay for each
employee for the same unit of time.
Instruction 138 is issued to enter an activity time calculation subroutine
to determine a new activity time using the statistical method.
Instruction 140 is issued to update the activity time. The activity time
update is used to change all activity times that were completed on any
given day.
Instruction 142 is issued to update replication. Replication update is a
subroutine that measures the amount of money that the Alphus system has
earned. When the amount is equal to the cost of hardware and software,
then Alphus replicates or recreates itself in another part of the
organization.
Instruction 144 is issued for a system analysis. System analysis is a
dynamic expert-like system that determines if a task is individually
random, part of a sequence, or occurs constantly at a specific date. The
system analysis subroutine does this by analyses of its past experience to
the end that it predicts and directs the next task to be performed, and
uses a sensitivity analysis to forget tasks that are no longer required.
Finally, instruction 146 is issued to enter a task control subroutine. The
task control subroutine is a general system that ensures that all tasks
are performed in a timely manner and that none are missed.
Upon completion of the task control function three reports 148, 150, and
152 are made available. The first report 148 is for a goal analysis; it
indicates how many products or services can be produced for the rest of
the fiscal period based on the efficiency and effectiveness of any given
daily output. The second report 150 is for task assignment; it indicates
tomorrows workload, either for a supervisor's use and/or directly to the
employee; real time is possible. And the third report 152 is for a
performance budget. The performance budget report sets forth the cost in
dollars for each product or service which is the performance budget. Once
calculated, it is compared with the line item budget for the same period.
These reports complete the Alphus system, and the Beta (anticipation)
system (FIG. 4c) begins.
The Beta system consists of a plurality of instructions 154, 155, 158, 160,
162, 164, 166, 168, and 170.
Instruction 154 is issued for entering a subroutine for keyword
determination. Keyword determination is the use of the task description to
identify those words that can be used as descriptors in data base
searches.
Instruction 156 is issued for entering a data base search routine. A data
base search is used to determine the literature and authors who are expert
in the described tasks.
Instruction 158 is issued for entering a problematic goal determination
subroutine. The problematic goal determination refers to the use of
automated Delphi techniques to identify problematic goals in a given task
or task area. Delphi is a decision-making technique.
Instruction 160 is issued for entering a systems analysis routine. This
systems analyses is for the deductive determination of new or revised
tasks, again by automated Delphi.
Instruction 162 is issued for entering a costs/benefits analyses
subroutine. The costs/benefits analyses subroutine is used to determine
the most efficient and effective new approach.
Instruction 164 is issued for entering a development plan determination
subroutine. The development plan determination subroutine is for
developing the new or revised tasks, their time frame, and performance
budget.
Instruction 166 is issued for entering a task testing subroutine. Testing
is performed by the old or new staff, and the results of the new methods
are compared with the old for task evaluation.
Instruction 168 is issued to enter an operational plan determination
subroutine. The operational plan determination results from the optimal of
those tested tasks being put into an operational file (Alphus).
Finally, instruction 170 is issued to enter an initialization/conversion
subroutine. Initialization/conversion occurs when the new or improved
tasks are made ready for implementation.
After completion of the Beta system instructions return 172 is made to
Alphus instruction 66 and the Alphus routine repeated.
OPERATION
Inasmuch as the computerized management system of the present invention
follows the management format of Emergence (steps 60-96, FIG. 4a),
Convergence(steps 100-152, FIGS. 4a-4c), Proliference (steps 154-168, FIG.
4c), and Divergence (steps 170 and 172, FIG. 4c) derived from the
sciences, the operation is discussed in relation thereto.
The initial interaction begins with a rule-based protocol for conducting an
interrogative dialogue with the person-in-charge of any subdivision.
Regardless of who activates the computer, the system seeks such a person.
Its purpose is to produce a certain copy of the subdivision's present plan
for internal machine-intelligent use.
EMERGENCE
Control System
Initialization of the computer is followed by inputting into a file a
schedule of the tasks to be performed. The scheduling of tasks is similar
to the typical industrial project management control system. It differs in
two ways from the industrial project management control system, which
focuses on sequential tasks required to accomplish a single or multiple
project. First, the schedule must include both tasks and services that
occur singularly or in a group. Groups of tasks/services that are
sequential are initiated at absolute, estimated, or random times. Their
following ordered individual tasks/services may begin at absolute or
estimated times. Such individual tasks/services may be entered
conditionally as well, that is, the sequence may differ based on a
previously determined variable order.
The work elements may also be a menu or an array of entirely random, single
tasks/services. Finally, single or groups of tasks/services can be
prioritized, including those that are random. The interrogative dialogue
seeks the information required to make these differentiations.
The second difference involves the use of Julian dates. The Julian date
refers to a specific number for a given day resulting from the sequential
numbering of the days of the year beginning with January 1 as 001 to
December 31 as 365 (366 for leap years).
Based on Julian dates, the subdivision calendar is determined by
interrogation for any future period. Nonworking days, holidays and
weekends are excluded from this effort; but annual leave, sick leave, and
leave-without-pay days for specific individuals are designated separately
on a day-by-day basis.
The resulting calendar is a file that is then updated with certainty, both
absolutely and dynamically with estimated dates for tasks/services. The
latter dates are determined by the AT formula based on the estimated cost
in time of each task/service. Random tasks/services cannot be scheduled.
On any given day the calendar for that day, consisting as it does of
absolute and estimated tasks/services to be initiated, will be relied upon
to direct the individuals in the subdivision to perform specific
tasks/services. (The total of all types of tasks/services performed by an
individual equals that person's job description.)
Operational/Support System
In addition to the information required for the calendar (the names of the
work elements and the cost in time for all tasks/services), the
interrogative dialogue determines all the other information needed to
complete the plan:
1. quality and quantity goal surrogates;
2. work element descriptions and the name of the employee responsible for
the completion and reporting of each task; and
3. performance budget as well as line item budget if applicable.
During the course of the interrogation, the expert system is to answer,
upon demand, certain questions about how to do the systems analysis. In
short, a plan of the operational/support activities is produced in the
same general format as the handwritten type, except this plan is for
machine use only.
CONVERGENCE
Plication
With the work elements, their schedule, the employees by name and job
description, the system determines by priority each person's
tasks/services for the day including work started but not completed the
previous day, the absolute scheduled tasks/services, and the estimated
dynamically scheduled tasks/services.
When the employees arrive for work, each person reports through the
input/output device and receives the first task he is to perform that day.
If work of a higher priority is inputted, the scheduling is revised by the
system.
At the end of the employee's work period, the system will have optimally
controlled the period's schedule of operational/support activities. The
employee then inputs verification and other data needed to evaluate the
work period, in response to prompts. Each person is requested to verify or
list the tasks/services performed. The verification includes all absolute
or estimated scheduled tasks/services performed during the period. In
addition the system calls for a listing of all random tasks/services begun
but suspended and for those commenced but not completed. In both these
cases the employee receives a prompt for an estimate in percentages of the
portion of the tasks/services completed. Tasks/services, that take more
than one day to complete also fall into this category. This number of
completed and partially completed tasks/services, after being related to
their cost in time, is the source factor for all control.
Control (Time/Cost)
After the employees have completed their daily work period, instructions
are issued to calculate the relative time/cost for all tasks/services. The
original cost in time for all tasks/services is measured in minutes as a
result of information determined by the initial interrogative dialogue.
Activity Time Cost (ATC) is originally calculated using:
ATC=[a(optimistic)+4b(most likely)+c(pessimistic)]/6
The ATC formula is also used for calculating the daily time/cost of the
jobs completed for each day. The estimated time for performing the
tasks/services completed each day is compared to the actual time and the
percentage above or below the estimate computed as an experience factor
for correcting the job estimates.
Control (Money/Cost)
Next, the cost of such tasks are calculated. These costs can also be
recorded in an experience base and used as values in the same type of
equation, e.g. Activity Money Cost (AMC)=(a+4b+c)/6. It will be
appreciated that more complex statistical and other mathematical means can
be used where desired.
Control (Scheduling)
As the estimated sequential tasks/services are the only type that can be
dynamically rescheduled, the time/cost for each such task/service is used
to recalculate the ATC for each estimated task/service and using the new
ATC's to change the calendar.
Total (Quality/Quantity)
After computing the efficiency data, instructions are issued to determine
the effectiveness data for each day. The clue to quality problems is the
suspended task/service. Even though an individual may complete the
tasks/services in question, the suspension is a future target for quality
improvement. For quantity control, instructions are issued to determine
the accumulated results of tasks/services, singly or in groups for
comparison to the quantity goal surrogates on a daily basis.
Replication
After the initial plication, instructions are issued for determining t | | |
